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DATE: |
2/20/2009 |
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TO: |
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FROM: |
Bethany Wicksall, Senior Fiscal Analyst |
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RE: |
Fiscal Impact of HB 4285/SB 255 - School Employees' Retirement Incentive |
Summary
HB 4285/SB 255 would encourage school employees who already are eligible to retire to do so by offering them an increased pension multiplier if they retired prior toJune 30, 2010. Currently a school employee's pension is determined by multiplying three factors: final average compensation (FAC), years of service (YOS), and a multiplier of 1.5%. The proposal would increase the multiplier from 1.5% to 2.0%, which increases a retiree's annual pension by 33%. Table 1 provides examples of how the proposal would impact the pension allowance of various hypothetical school employees.
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Table 1: Personal Pension Increase Scenarios |
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Employee |
FAC |
YOS |
Current Multiplier |
Current Pension |
Proposed Multiplier |
Proposed Pension |
Annual Increase |
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#1 |
$40,000 |
15 |
1.5% |
$9,000 |
2.0% |
$12,000 |
$3,000 |
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#2 |
$70,000 |
30 |
1.5% |
$31,500 |
2.0% |
$42,000 |
$11,500 |
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#3 |
$150,000 |
30 |
1.5% |
$67,500 |
2.0% |
$90,000 |
$22,500 |
Participation
According to the Office of Retirement Services (ORS), approximately 55,000 school employees would be immediately eligible to retire and an additional 7,000 would be eligible to purchase the time required to retire. When the State offered an increased pension multiplier incentive for state employees in 2002, 60% of eligible state employees retired. Since that package raised the multiplier from 1.5% to 1.75%, it is reasonable to expect that a higher percentage of school employees would apply for retirement with a 2.0% multiplier. It should be pointed out, given some public misperception, that this proposal includes all school employees that are part of the Michigan Public School Employees' Retirement System (MPSERS), including those of community colleges and certain university employees, and is not limited to just teachers.
The bill would cap participation by limiting the present value of the total added cost of the unfunded accrued actuarial liability (UAAL) of the pension to $1.5 billion for each of the two school years in which employees could retire. Applications to retire under this proposal would be given preference based on age and the most years of experience as well as the earliest application date. On average, depending on salary, this would cap the number of retirees to approximately 14,750 retirees for both school years 2008-2009 and 2009-2010, for a total of approximately 29,500. According to the ORS, approximately 9,000 of the eligible retirees would have retired absent the proposal for each of the two school years, and it would be reasonable to assume an equal proportion of the balance would have retired over the following three years, such that all of them would have retired absent the proposal within five years. See Table 2 for a distribution of estimated retirees attributable to the proposal over the next five years based on these assumptions.
Costs
According to the ORS, the increased multiplier would increase the present value of the UAAL of the pension system by approximately $101,600 per participating person. For FY 2008-09 districts are charged 4.56% of their payroll to pay for the UAAL that as ofSept. 30, 2007 equaled approximately $5.8 billion. So if the present value of the additional UAAL would be $3.0 billion and were amortized over the same 29 year period as is currently used, the additional costs would equal about $232 million per year, and the district contribution rate for the UAAL would increase by 2.36 percentage points. However, the Office of Retirement Services has suggested that in order to decrease the total costs of the package, districts should pay the added UAAL costs over the same 5-year period in which districts would benefit from the salary savings. While paying for the costs up front would decrease the total costs, it would considerably increase the required contributions from districts for those five years. The annual costs for those five years would be approximately $710 million and would increase contribution rates by approximately 7.2 percentage points.
In addition to the added UAAL costs, increasing the number of retirees would increase retiree health care costs for each year that the retiree would have worked absent the incentive. FY 2007-08 retiree health care costs totaled $734.5 million for 167,265 eligible retirees, averaging $4,391 per person. Table 2 summarizes the annual costs which vary from $12.6 million to $50.5 million based on the number of added retirees attributed to the proposal for each of the next five years. Retiree health care costs are charged to districts as a percent of payroll, and the added costs would increase contribution rates between 0.1 and 0.5 percentage points depending on the year.
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Table 2: Estimated Costs of HB 4285 (in millions) |
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FY 10 |
FY 11 |
FY 12 |
FY 13 |
FY 14 |
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Cumulative # retirees under the proposal |
14,750 |
29,500 |
29,500 |
29,500 |
29,500 |
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Cumulative est. # of retirees absent the proposal |
9,000 |
18,000 |
20,875 |
23,750 |
26,625 |
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Est. # of additional retirees attributable to proposal |
5,750 |
11,500 |
8,625 |
5,750 |
2,875 |
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Additional UAAL costs |
$710.0 |
$710.0 |
$710.0 |
$710.0 |
$710.0 |
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Additional retiree health care costs |
$25.2 |
$50.5 |
$37.9 |
$25.2 |
$12.6 |
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Payroll savings |
($129.4) |
($258.7) |
($194.1) |
($129.4) |
($64.7) |
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Total net costs |
$605.9 |
$501.7 |
$553.8 |
$605.9 |
$657.9 |
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Savings
The proposal would create payroll savings by either allowing districts to replace senior staff with younger, cheaper employees or by allowing districts to reduce staff through retirements as opposed to layoffs. Using data from the most recently available actuarial information (for the fiscal year endingSept. 30, 2007), the average salary of those eligible to retire would be approximately $52,500, and the starting salary of a new employee would be approximately $30,000. If, on average, districts saved approximately $22,500 per new retiree attributed to the proposal, the savings would range from $64.7 million to $258.7 million depending on the year. These savings would increase if districts chose not to replace some or all retirees but would decrease for each employee allowed to retire at a later date under the critical shortage discipline provision or for each employee hired back as an independent contractor if not at a reduced salary.
District Equity
The proposal's costs and savings would not be evenly distributed among school districts. Districts that have a high seniority staff may experience high participation rates and thus would see higher payroll savings. Districts that recently offered their own self-funded retirement incentives or who have a young staff would not see significant payroll savings from such a proposal. The costs, however, are distributed through increased retirement contribution rates on all districts.
Conclusion
The proposed retirement incentive would increase individual pension allowances by 33%. Based on past State experience, it is reasonable to expect that all of the estimated 29,500 eligible employees allowed to retire under this proposal would retire. While the added costs associated with the increased multiplier would apply to all 29,500 retirees, the added retiree health care costs and added salary savings would apply only to the additional retirees attributed to the proposal over each of the next five years. The added UAAL costs would outweigh any estimated salary savings. Total annual net costs, summarized in Table 2, would range from $501.7 million to $657.9 million.